Formula
Examples
1) Single Exponential Smoothing | year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| Sales | 30 | 25 | 35 | 25 | 20 | 30 | 35 | 40 | 30 | 45 |
Calculate Single Exponential Smoothing
Solution:
(1)
year | (2)
Sales | (3)
Exponential Smoothing
(alpha=0.3) |
| 1 | 30 | 30 |
| 2 | 25 | 0.3*30+0.7*30=30 |
| 3 | 35 | 0.3*25+0.7*30=28.5 |
| 4 | 25 | 0.3*35+0.7*28.5=30.45 |
| 5 | 20 | 0.3*25+0.7*30.45=28.815 |
| 6 | 30 | 0.3*20+0.7*28.815=26.1705 |
| 7 | 35 | 0.3*30+0.7*26.1705=27.3193 |
| 8 | 40 | 0.3*35+0.7*27.3193=29.6235 |
| 9 | 30 | 0.3*40+0.7*29.6235=32.7365 |
| 10 | 45 | 0.3*30+0.7*32.7365=31.9155 |
| 11 | | 0.3*45+0.7*31.9155=35.8409 |
2) Single Exponential Smoothing | year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Sales | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 13 |
Calculate Single Exponential Smoothing
Solution:
(1)
year | (2)
Sales | (3)
Exponential Smoothing
(alpha=0.1) |
| 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 2 | 4 | 0.1*2+0.9*2=2 |
| 3 | 5 | 0.1*4+0.9*2=2.2 |
| 4 | 7 | 0.1*5+0.9*2.2=2.48 |
| 5 | 8 | 0.1*7+0.9*2.48=2.932 |
| 6 | 10 | 0.1*8+0.9*2.932=3.4388 |
| 7 | 13 | 0.1*10+0.9*3.4388=4.0949 |
| 8 | | 0.1*13+0.9*4.0949=4.9854 |
This material is intended as a summary. Use your textbook for detail explanation.
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